What went Wrong in Venezuela

The nation was once the envy of South America. Now it's an international crisis.

I sincerely apologize that this week’s Waitt, What newsletter was unable to be published on time, all thanks to a great blow of misfortune. As I am sure you all know by now, the Nashville area has been slammed by Winter Storm Fern, dropping a sheet of ice across much of the American Southeast. Looking out the window right now, the icicles encompassing every single tree branch have an aura more resembling Hans Zimmer’s organ suite from the film Interstellar than my normal life. While blessedly my home has a generator keeping the lights on and my shower running hot, our internet has, as I am writing, completely collapsed. For anyone who attempted to contact me and received no reply, I certainly apologize. I am, however, quite aware that this calamitous act of God has left thousands or even millions of souls without any electricity or heat whatsoever. Thus, even in this compromised situation, I still count my blessings.

Still, you can all be rest assured that this author had a plan to safeguard against the possibility of a lost week of content. As chronicled in previous writings, the oil-rich yet still economically ruined South American nation of Venezuela has been in the news due to the dramatic events of Operation Absolute Resolve. Like Operation Just Cause in 1989, a Latin American dictator with deep ties to drug trafficking was swiftly apprehended by brave American servicemen to face justice for his crimes. While Nicolas Maduro may be sitting in a New York jail cell, his corrupt system remains firmly in place in Caracas, along with the 28 million people still living in the open-air prison that is Venezuela today. This state of uncertainty, far more profound than a mere ice storm, is why I recently have engaged in some independent research to learn how Venezuela sank into the mess it exists in today and what happens next.

There was once a time when Venezuela was the most stable and thriving democracy in South America. The nation with a Caribbean coast was a well-established haven for those seeking a better life from Fidel Castro’s tyranny in Cuba as well as unstable and conflict-prone countries like neighboring Colombia and beyond. However, simmering below the surface was a massive income gap and a massively corrupt elite, with presidents leaving office as some of the wealthiest men in the world. This house of cards was only sustained by the world’s largest reserves of crude oil. When oil prices fell during the 1980s, Venezuela’s economy crashed, shattering the social contract and opening the door to far more unseemly alternatives.

It was during this period of turmoil that the firebrand military colonel Hugo Chavez, with his promises of social justice and equality, became by far the most popular figure in the country. Six years after a failed coup attempt that saw him briefly imprisoned, in 1998 Chavez was elected president. The charismatic leader wasted little time in implementing his plan to radically overhaul his country. Despite explicitly promising not to do so in a now-infamous interview (subtitles available) with journalist Jorge Ramos, Chavez had completely expropriated Venezuela’s mailnoil company, PVDSA, by 2007. Instead of governing as a reasonable center-left moderate, Chavez instead engaged in theatrical yet frightening gestures, nationalizing company after company. The most famous of these gestures were his televised appearances where the president would be exhibited with various private establishments and thunderously decree Expropriese! (expropriate it). Just as happened in Cuba half a century before, these acts of economic terrorism, along with another failed coup in 2002 that entrenched Chavez regime, were a major sign for thousands of Venezuelans to leave the country while they still could.

It was obvious early on that following multiple crackdowns and a total obliteration of all checks and balances, that Hugo Chavez was building a system where he and his cronies would never leave power voluntarily. After winning multiple elections legitimately, Hugo Chavez died of cancer in 2013, passing the baton to his far less charismatic minion Nicolas Maduro. Only a few decades and multiple rigged elections after the Venezuelan people fell for the trap of the demagogue, all hope of democratic reform was dashed. And we all know exactly how that’s gone for the Venezuelan people. It’s no accident how Maduro and his cronies have managed to stay in power for so many years despite an economic collapse far more catastrophic than the 1980s. It’s instead a product of the regime’s ruthless nature and refusal to consider alternatives.

The key to the longevity of the Chavistas, as Maduro and his cronies call themselves, is an absolute monopoly on the capacity for violence in the country. Unless a Venezuelan is a Chavista loyalist, there is zero chance he or she will ever have the opportunity to purchase a firearm. Meanwhile, according an anonymous source, 20-25% of the Venezuelan population are brainwashed true believers in the Chavista doctrine. This cohort of Venezuelan society dominates the military, an institution which has ruthlessly purged any factions who would be more sympathetic to reform. Others are among the feared Colectivo gangs, a group of thugs who carry out the regime’s dirty work by unleashing a reign of terror against the Venezuelan people. Thus, despite a total loss of popular legitimacy and an economic collapse directly attributable to the mismanagement of the Chavista regime (turns out leaving a gang of Marxists to run an oil industry isn’t a great idea), this clique of gangsters has managed to hang on through sheer brute force and terror alone.

Then came the fraud that stole the 2024 presidential election in Nicolas Maduro’s favor. Opposition leader Maria Corina Machado, barred from running herself, made the brilliant tactical decision to construct a database following every movement of every ballot. The result wasn’t even close, with opposition candidate Edmondo Gonzalez capturing 67% of the vote. Thus, when the official results were released so incompetently that the total percentage of votes exceeded 100%, Machado’s database exposed Maduro’s ‘victory’ as a sham. While expecting the Chavistas to hold a free and fair election and relinquish power was always a stretch, at least the entire world knows the depths of the corruption at the heart of the regime. Legitimate copies of the ballots were transported to Panama, where they are stored safely until the day comes when their verdict, the free choice of the Venezuelan people, can be honored.

The Venezuelan crisis thus begs the question: what happens next. Despite Maduro’s capture, it’s obvious that the remaining Chavistas, especially the military controlled by ruthless general Vladimir Padrino Lopez and the Colectivo gangs controlled by the equally ruthless Diosdado Cabello, will resist and block any serious political reform as if their life depended on it. And if you were to ask the Chavistas whether they equated their political survival with their personal survival, they would certainly respond in the affirmative. Exile, while theoretically sparing their lives and fortunes from the long arm of justice, is merely step 1 on the pathway to their doom. At least in their heads. Therefore, any pathway to a serious political transition, if it happens at all, is expected to last a long time.

With the Chavista monopoly on violence, a virulent hatred of the United States (current President Delcy Rodriguez’ revolutionary Marxist father Jorge was tortured to death by the Venezuelan security services in 1976), and a minefield of dangers should they ever relinquish their power, there is no shortage of obstacles to achieving a healthier, more just Venezuela. As President Trump has repeatedly asserted, the United States has “all the cards” in our international dealings, especially with far more vulnerable nations like Venezuela. If we do play our cards right, a Venezuela no longer synonymous with crisis but instead with opportunity will be realized.

I would like to apologize to my readers for the delay. Ice storms are no fun.