Ukraine- Four Years on

It has been a long, bloody, and exhausting four years in Eastern Europe— with no end in sight to the devastation.

Four years ago last Tuesday, Russian President Vladimir Putin executed a fateful roll of the dice that has not only killed more than 400,000 Russians and Ukrainians, displaced millions, and devastated Ukrainian families, but shattered the post-Cold War global security order. On February 24, 2022, around 30,000 Russian soldiers marched southward from the former Soviet Republic of Belarus with the orders from Moscow to rapidly take control of the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv and remove the so-called “Nazi” Ukrainian government. Of course, as we all know, these orders were derailed by a plethora of tactical and strategic errors, and Putin’s three-day “Special Military Operation” has now endured for 1,463 grueling days and nights.

This duration is now longer than what Russians call the Great Patriotic War (measured between the launch of Adolf Hitler’s invasion of the USSR in 1941 to the fall of Berlin in 1945,) or what we in the West call World War II.

Yet Putin remains undeterred. As highlighted previously on this blog, Moscow’s current logic eventuates that the benefits of keeping the war machine running outweigh the risks. The Russian macroeconomy has since 2022 been reassembled from the orthodox, neoliberal structure in place since the 1990s to a Soviet-style contraption where the state and the military have matched the energy sector as integral drivers of the economy. According to German intelligence, military spending now accounts for half the state budget. Not only are factories running at full capacity, but peace risks alienating imperialist hard-liners and war veterans who could easily turn on the regime. Beyond pragmatic self-interest, there are far more profound factors in play. Despite the mounting and inevitable costs of a war of attrition, he now has, according to independent surveys, most of the Russian nation firmly behind him in a conflict his regime views as critical for the survival of Russia itself.

Thus, despite multiple assertions from President Trump claiming otherwise, neither Vladimir Putin nor anyone connected to his regime have any serious interest, neither pragmatic nor philosophical, in concluding a war with anything short of an absolute victory.

However, it has been the overall indifference of the country who was once Ukraine’s strongest supporter which, in my opinion, has been the most decisive factor that sank Ukraine’s situation from fragile to catastrophic. With the change of administrations in Washington, the United States has pivoted to an explicitly neutral posture to promote a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine. Late last year, a leaked peace proposal authored by American and Russian officials, without any Ukrainian input, went down in flames after enduring scathing condemnation both at home and abroad. In recent negotiations in the Emirati capital of Abu Dhabi, the American delegation, again represented by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, attended peace talks between Ukraine and Russia, as a mediator, not a supporter of Ukraine in any fashion. While limited military and intelligence support remains, the overall message is clear: the conflict in Ukraine is of far greater interest to Europe than the United

States, and any active role is too burdensome for American taxpayers.

In my honest assessment, even the staunchest Ukraine hawks must admit the Trump Administration has a legitimate argument on both counts.

Still, Nearly a year following the legendary melee in the Oval Office where Donald Trump accused Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky of “gambling with World War 3,” it is decidedly clear to me that the administration’s policy shift, in all probability shaped by the president’s personal grudge against the country, has been a devastating failure for Ukraine. While talks have continued for nearly a year, there has simply been no de-escalation between Russia and Ukraine whatsoever. Indeed, 2025, according to the Russian opposition group Conflict Intelligence Team, was the deadliest year for civilians, including Russian civilians, since the war began. If any of you have a different opinion, please check out this graphic from the BBC. (Picture below)

If there’s a definition of a picture speaking a thousand words, this would fit the bill. To the suffering Ukrainian people, I can only apologize on behalf of my country. While there is certainly a path to ending the fighting and the suffering through diplomacy, the Trump Administration, including chief negotiator Steve Witkoff, have followed a different, and in my opinion, disgraceful approach.

There is no doubt, due to relentless pressure from both Washington and Moscow, that Ukraine is falling into a desperate situation, especially in the country’s battered East. In those regions, the electrical grids have largely been destroyed by Russian attacks (which Moscow claims are retaliation for Ukrainian attacks on the Russian oil industry,) prompting heartbreaking scenes in cities where normal life has become impossible.

Kyiv’s overall strategy, far from the media-savvy display that inspired the Western World in 2022, has transformed into something far more utilitarian: kill as many Russians as possible. According to Ukrainian Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov in an article for Foreign Policy, Kyiv’s grim target is “to kill 50,000 Russians per month,” exceeding the approximately 30,000 monthly recruits enlisted by Moscow. Also, a Ukrainian friend reminded me not to succumb (as I admittedly have over the past year) to the defeatist narrative that has largely taken hold in Western media. Moscow has endured great challenges of its own, and not just their eye-watering casualties. Not only are their territorial gains, as of now, stalling, but reports have emerged of serious financial difficulties— difficulties certainly exacerbated by recent oil sanctions. Finally, and even more critically, you can never underestimate the legendary resilience of the Ukrainian people.

In my friend’s words, the nation’s fight for “identity, dignity, and the right to exist as a free nation” is a formidable tool in keeping up what the world still assumes to be a doomed fight. Beyond weapons, “Ukraine’s survival has depended… on volunteers, local leaders, municipalities, and social initiatives that have sustained daily life under attack.” Indeed, few other nations, and I hate to say it, but the United States included, could endure such grave challenges on par with the profound grit and determination of the Ukrainian people. This is not a country who will ever surrender, no matter any political scandals or who controls the state apparatus in far-away Washington, DC.

Despite their bravery, the road ahead for the Ukrainian people is filled with numerous pitfalls and trials. After a further round of talks, this time in Geneva, collapsed within hours as the bombardment of Ukraine continued without respite, the path to peace, let alone a just peace, is more distant than ever. The more one reads Russian history, the more one realizes that Vladimir Putin will never, no matter the cost or inducements, let go of his quest to correct the ‘historical error’ of Ukrainian independence. Simply, Putin is acting in a manner no different than any of the Tsars and Tsarinas or General Secretaries who preceded him, none of whom perceived the loss of the land now comprising Ukraine as even slightly acceptable. In turn, despite Moscow’s complete intransigence, Ukraine’s struggle, inspired by the faith that has blossomed in the country since independence in 1991, will not wither away anytime soon.