The View on Caracas from Beijing and Moscow

Will China and Russia truly be emboldened by the US intervention in Venezuela? Simply, I don't think so.

China is deeply shocked by and strongly condemns the U.S.’s blatant use of force against a sovereign state and action against its president. Such hegemonic acts of the U.S. seriously violate international law and Venezuela’s sovereignty and threaten peace and security in Latin America and the Caribbean region. 

Such was the official statement of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People’s Republic of China on Saturday, January 3 regarding the highly successful Operation Absolute Resolve that executed the spectacular kidnapping of Venezuelan President and indicted narco-terrorist Nicolas Maduro and his wife from their compound in the capital of Caracas. Operation Absolute Resolve, like Operation Midnight Hammer, was a masterclass in American military power and competence. For months prior to the overnight raid, CIA operatives had drawn a comprehensive picture of Maduro’s daily routines. Then, before dawn on Saturday, following a cyberattack that blacked out Caracas and an aerial bombardment of military sites comprising fighter jets, drones, and bombers, Delta Force special operatives carried out the operation— with only minor injuries on the American side. And now, the corrupt and totalitarian Bolivarian regime, constructed by Maduro and his charismatic but deceased predecessor Hugo Chavez for more than 25 years, faces the prospect previously unthinkable concessions to the United States.

On December 23, less than two weeks before hell was rained down on Nicolas Maduro and his cronies, Washington gave one last offer of safe passage to the former bus driver now stripped of his criminal empire and sitting alone in a New York jail cell. The strongman responded by dancing away such warnings of military intervention as a bluff. Big mistake. Regardless of one’s political views, the triumph of Operation Absolute Resolve should send a strong message that no other nation on Planet Earth has either the firepower or the technical expertise to even sniff what the CIA and Delta Force just pulled off in Caracas. While a mere “grab and run” operation is no Berlin Wall 2.0, the United States and the world can breathe a little easier, knowing that a terrible regime, responsible for the deaths of thousands of Venezuelans, regional instability, and brazen criminal activity causing havoc in our own country, has been seriously undermined.

But here is where the above statement by high-ranking officials in Beijing becomes relevant. While many Venezuelans and Americans will rightly cheer the downfall of corrupt tyrant Nicolas Maduro and hope for genuine reform in Venezuela, we must also understand that our adversaries in Beijing and Moscow, while potentially emboldened by Trump’s deployment of unilateral US military power, will certainly also be alarmed by their own shortcomings.

It’s obvious that the Special Military Operation fatefully ordered by Vladimir Putin nearly four years ago was supposed to follow the same script as Operation Absolute Resolve. Rather than a quick victory deposing Volodymyr Zelensky’s government and dismantling Ukrainian state structures, Russia and Ukraine were plunged into a grueling hellscape of death, mud, and ruin with no end in sight. Instead of admitting their failures, Russian officials have responded with the annoying strategy best labeled as Whataboutism. When the United States and its allies condemned the Special Military Operation as an unprovoked act of aggression and a brazen violation of international law, one of Moscow’s many defenses went along the lines of Hey, we’re just defending our interests and security in Ukraine. If you really want to look for unprovoked acts of aggression, let us remind you that it was the United States who attacked Iraq justified with false intelligence in 2003 and then launched another aggression against sovereign Libya in 2011. And now, they have the opportunity to use it yet again.

Whataboutism is annoying, not only because it ignores that the regimes targeted in these operations had been openly and actively hostile to the United States and its allies for decades, but it completely throws under the rug Moscow’s own repugnant track record of interventions for ‘security’ or whatever mensonge du jour they can concoct. Still, we have to understand that the Russian public and security elite, conditioned for decades to believe that the United States is the Great Satan of the world, will certainly perceive, along with the obvious jealousy of its spectacular success, Operation Absolute Resolve as yet another episode of Washington acting with impunity on the global stage. Repeated assessments of Vladimir Putin’s psychological state have chronicled his severe mistrust of American intentions, even under a more deal-minded leader such as Donald Trump, as the main stimulus for his militarization of Russian foreign policy and ultimately his catastrophic decision to invade Ukraine.

The same logic would also apply in Beijing. Chinese diplomats frequently disparage Taiwanese officials, particularly from the ruling anti-Beijing Democratic Progressive Party, as “Taiwan independence separatist forces” who “will surely be held accountable by history.” One can imagine, just as Nicolas Maduro was indicted by the Southern District of New York in 2020 for narco-terrorism, conspiracy to import cocaine, and other charges, a kangaroo court in Beijing indicting Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te and other Taiwanese public officials with charges of separatism or even terrorism. While there remain, for the foreseeable future, multiple strategic obstacles towards any Chinese military action on the Taiwan Strait, Beijing’s legal explanation for such an operation would not be without precedent. Thus, while Operation Absolute Resolve will not immediately embolden either Beijing or Moscow to take drastic military action they have thus far avoided, the seizure of Nicolas Maduro will undoubtedly be another brick in the wall for the pair’s global anti-American propaganda campaign.

However, in my opinion, there’s a message even more significant for not only China and Russia, but the entire world, regarding Operation Absolute Resolve. And that is the overall military superiority of the United States over every other nation, even our fellow superpowers. Over the last several decades, Caracas’ close strategic relationship with Moscow led to Venezuela’s military armory switching entirely from American equipment… to Russian. During the attack, Venezuela’s air defenses, comprising Russian S-300 missile systems and Chinese radar systems, were essentially obliterated. In the words of Defense (sorry, the title Secretary of War still does not sit well with me) Secretary Pete Hegseth, “seems those Russian air defenses didn’t quite work so well, did they?” And Venezuela is not alone. Russian air defenses also have a spotty record in Syria and Ukraine, the country Russia was supposed to take over in a matter of days. While Caracas was certainly caught off guard by Operation Absolute Resolve, it appears that the fate of Venezuela’s S-300s speaks to a trend, not mere misfortune.

While an embattled Russia gazes upon the United States military with envy, the Chinese response, far from any kind of pretext or inspiration to take decisive action against Taiwan, sits somewhere between outright nonchalance and mild concern. Unlike Russia, the true state of China’s defense capacity is largely unknown to the world— and the longstanding reputation of corruption in the People’s Liberation Army does Beijing no favors. According to one Chinese expert interviewed by the South China Morning Post, “China and Venezuela are different. In terms of military and defense capabilities compared to the United States, we are relatively evenly matched, with only a small gap… China’s defense capabilities for the capital and leaders are second to none.” While obviously no one is planning on a kidnapping operation of Xi Jinping or Vladimir Putin, such is the degree of paranoia in both countries’ top ranks. Furthermore, the expert also conceded that China had to “strengthen (its) air defense.”

In conclusion, I can understand why many experts are concerned that the Trump Administration’s highly successfully execution of Operation Absolute Resolve will potentially open the door to further conflict, whether in Taiwan, the former Soviet Union… or Greenland. However, we must understand that such paranoid views of American intentions had existed in both Beijing and Moscow long before Nicolas Maduro was hauled off by Delta Force operatives. The dictator’s dramatic downfall will change none of that. Simply, there is no indication that the attack will accelerate any of their sinister strategic plans. In fact, China has not engaged in serious combat since a brief war against Vietnam in 1979, making another attempt a massive gamble for Beijing. Instead, Operation Absolute Resolve, despite its legal ambivalence, is a clear triumph of the capacity of American military equipment and most of all the brave Delta Force special operatives who executed it. And that, my readers, shall allow us to breathe a sigh of relief.