Russia, Power, and Putin: Dr. Thomas Graham on the Kremlin’s Grand Strategy

Dr. Thomas Graham, former senior director for Russia at the National Security Council and now a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, takes us on a deep dive into Russia’s mindset, its leader Vladimir Putin, and what the future might hold for U.S.-Russia relations.

“It's important to remember that the Russians think of themselves as a great power. And being a great power is in many ways a core element of Russian national identity. Here, the relationship with the United States plays a central role. There's no country in the world, not even China, that can validate Russia as a great power to the extent the United States can.” — Dr. Thomas Graham

As a seasoned diplomat and former senior director for Russia on the National Security Council under President George W. Bush, Dr. Thomas Graham unpacks the psychology of Russian power, the legacy of Vladimir Putin, and what the U.S. gets right — and wrong — about its most complex geopolitical rival.

Dr. Graham’s fascination with Russia goes back to the earliest days of the Cold War. 

“I'm old enough to remember the Sputnik launch in 1957,” he recalls. “It was a big event. You could hear all the adults talking about it, what it meant for the United States in its competition with the Soviet Union.”

That curiosity sparked his initial interest and led to a career focused on U.S.–Russia relations. “I spent about 15 years in the U.S. government,” he explains. “Left the government in 2000, worked with the former Secretary of State, Dr. Henry Kissinger, and now at the Council on Foreign Relations for the past five years.”

Based on all that experience, Dr. Graham believes Russia is now having a global identity crisis, fueled by their enduring obsession with status and recognition. 

“The Russians think of themselves as a great power, and being a great power is in many ways a core element of Russian national identity,” he says. “They're still trying to figure out how to operate in a world where their power is declining."

Despite a smaller economy — one Dr. Graham suggests “ranks fourth or fifth in the world” — Russia still wields massive influence through its military and energy resources.

"Its nuclear forces are roughly the same size as the United States,” he says. “That nuclear arsenal continues to give Russia a considerable status on the global stage.”

“And here, the relationship with the United States plays a central role.”

According to Dr. Graham, no other country in the world — not even China — can validate Russia as a great power like the United States. 

“That's one of the reasons I would argue that President Putin is interested in what he would say is ‘normalizing relations’ with the United States, gaining that respect from the United States, that Russia is a great power worthy of our regard and considered cooperation between our two countries.”

Putin’s worldview, according to Dr. Graham, is shaped by betrayal and control. “He believes the West took advantage of Russia’s weakness during the 1990s,” he explains. “He’s come to the conclusion that we weren’t interested in partnership, we simply wanted to contain and isolate Russia.”

Regarding the invasion of Ukraine: “Putin thought that the Russian invasion of Ukraine would be a walk in the park.” Now four years into what has become “a bloody war of attrition,” has deeply damaged Russia's international standing.

Ukraine, Dr. Graham argues, isn’t just a neighbor — it’s a symbol. “Ukraine occupied a very special place in Russia’s geopolitical imagination,” he says. “Without Ukraine, Russia would've not been able to operate effectively as a great power.”

Throughout the conversation, Dr. Graham returns to a key warning: Russia is in it for the long game. “Russia's not going to disappear,” he offers. “No matter what happens in Ukraine, Russia's going to remain a major factor on the global stage, and we're going to have to find a way to deal with that.”

So what’s the way forward?

The challenge, Dr. Graham argues, is to transform our deeply adversarial relationship into one he calls “competitive coexistence.” 

“We recognize that we are countries that have different value systems, different geopolitical interests, that we’re going to be rivals,” he says. “But we want to keep that rivalry within reasonable parameters.” 

“Responsible management,” he says, will reduce the risk of direct military confrontation but also “leaves open the opportunity for cooperation on a range of issues.” Solving urgent global problems, like climate change, cannot be done “without the Russians being involved.” To maintain strategic stability and reduce the risk of a nuclear conflict between the United States and Russia, we're going to have to deal with Russia.

“Finding a way to move towards competitive coexistence is a challenge for the United States, but it's also a challenge for Russia that finds itself in the same situation,” Dr. Graham suggests. 

“Russia wants strategic autonomy from China. And we would like to see Russia less beholden to China for our national reasons. So there are many good reasons we should try to move towards a more constructive relationship with Russia.”

“I think President Trump clearly wants to move in that direction, although he hasn't figured out how to do it,” Dr. Graham says. “We can't fully normalize relations between our two countries as long as Russia is continuing its aggression against Ukraine.”

For more of Dr. Graham’s thoughtful insights into Russia, Putin, and the future of global security, listen in to the full episode.

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