One down, one to go

Obtaining assistance for Ukraine is becoming more challenging

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban (Shutterstock)

Last week, the 27 leaders of all 27 members of the European Union came together in the EU capital of Brussels to agree on a major assistance package to Ukraine worth approximately $55 billion.  This massive cash infusion is no doubt a win for the embattled Eastern European country.  For months, there had been concern among supporters of Ukraine that Hungary’s controversial and outspoken Prime Minister Viktor Orban would follow through on his threat to veto the assistance at last week’s EU summit in Brussels.  With unanimity required, a Hungarian veto would doom the package.  Orban repeatedly criticized the aid to Ukraine, which included military aid against the Russian invasion, as counterproductive and escalatory.  Orban has also called for a ceasefire, an outcome that Ukrainian officials have long rejected.  Orban’s veto threat raised eyebrows, considering the deluge of allegations, which Orban denies, that the Hungarian Prime Minister is a puppet serving Russian interests.

Ultimately, it took a mishmash of flattery, threats, carrots, and sticks for Orban to finally give his consent.  Much of the credit for Orban’s fold comes from conservative Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni.  Meloni has established a close relationship with Orban due to their alliance on a number of political matters, including opposition to illegal migration and the EU’s hara-kiri climate policies.  Ukraine was an exception, with Meloni, free from the stench of Russian connections, establishing herself as a strong supporter of Kyiv.  The night before the summit in Brussels, Meloni offered Orban the option of an annual review checking for corruption in the aid for Ukraine.  While Orban’s demand of an annual right of veto was rejected, this carrot, plus the stick of economic sanctions against and a freeze-out of Hungary from all European Union functions, was enough for Orban to save face while ultimately backing down from a potential diplomatic crisis.

While there has been success in generating support in Europe for Ukraine, there has been less success in Ukraine’s largest donor, the United States.  Just this week, a piece of compromise legislation, intended to address conflicts around the world as well as America’s strained immigration system, collapsed under pressure from former president Donald Trump.  Trump reportedly opposed any compromise on immigration lest he give the Biden Administration a political win.  Trump also used his influence with House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana) and other congressional Republicans to kill the agreement.  Johnson has publicly labeled the deal, which he and most other Republicans view as too soft on immigration, as “dead on arrival”, which in practical terms means that he would not even allow the agreement to come to a vote in the House of Representatives.  Even House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Michael McCaul (R-Texas), a Ukraine supporter, has come out against the agreement.  Clearly, it is time for a Plan B.

Now, all eyes are on the US Congress to see what comes next.  Over the last few months, as American aid runs out, Ukrainian soldiers have been running low on ammunition, fueling fears that the Russian army will make more serious gains from which Ukraine has been spared since the initial retreat from Kyiv in March 2022.  Thus, the future of American military aid to Ukraine, as well as nervous NATO allies west of Ukraine, depends on whether Johnson, as well as geriatric Senate leaders Chuck Schumer (D-New York) and Mitch McConnell (R-Kentucky) can work out a compromise that keeps aid for Ukraine (as well as Israel and other allies) intact for the coming year.  

Since tomorrow I have the remarkable opportunity to meet Speaker Johnson in person here in Nashville, I will most certainly press him of the urgent need of more aid to Ukraine.  One does not get an opportunity like this one very often, so I must take every advantage of it.  While I agree that eventually we will need some sort of ceasefire in the next few years, the need to pass this military aid to Ukraine remains critical.  For security in Eastern Europe, as well as my own sanity, I hope Johnson gets the message.