Mexican Standoff

Voters South of the Border Plunge the Nation into Uncertainty

In the end, it wasn’t even close.  South of the border, in that nation formally known as the Estados Unidos Mexicanos, but commonly known as the spring break your brain blacked out, 56 million Mexican voters across 32 states stretching from the Sonoran Desert to the Mayan jungles showed up to vote in their national election.  With 61% of those votes, a Jewish academic and former mayor of Mexico City with a specialty in environmental science named Claudia Sheinbaum was elected to Mexico’s powerful presidency.  Furthermore, members and allies of Sheinbaum’s leftist MORENA party won 372 of the 500 mandates in the Chamber of Deputies and 83 of the 128 mandates in the Senate.  Finally, candidates from MORENA and its left-wing allies won 6 of the 8 state governor elections, increasing their total of governorships to 24 out of 32 total.  Sheinbaum is clearly a trailblazer.  Beyond her status as the first female president in a machismo society, Sheinbaum is also Mexico’s first Jewish president (more on that front later).

In a country that suffered nearly 30 thousand murders in 2023 along with the assassination of a record 39 political candidates in 2024, it is no surprise that violence and security was one of the top issues in the campaign.  In Mexico, extortion is simply a daily fact of life.  While much of the discussion about corruption and violence in Mexico revolves around the infamous drug cartels, known for their creative forms of torture, sometimes even the notoriously corrupt Mexican police take part in the racket.  In summary, the security situation in Mexico is not the most encouraging to folks north of the border.  With security deteriorating in south of the border, that border has become a den of criminality, leading to more than 2.5 million illegal border crossings in 2023 and yet more crime and political division across the US.  The political debate has become so toxic, congress almost did not pass vital aid to Ukraine.

The second topic of the campaign, while less discussed in the United States, is the personality of the man Claudia Sheinbaum is replacing- Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, known popularly by his initials AMLO.  AMLO, who is constitutionally limited to one six-year term, rose from humble beginnings in the oil-rich southern state of Tabasco into becoming a larger-than-life anti-establishment politician who finally won the Mexican presidency on his third attempt in 2018.  Like his counterpart north of the border, AMLO publicly disputed his first defeat in 2006 on claims of electoral fraud.  His supporters staged protests for months.  The Trump comparisons don’t stop there.  AMLO, whose charismatic personality always lands him at the center of Mexico’s news cycle, has a hostile relationship with the mainstream media, labeling them puppets of the conservative Mexican elite plotting to bring him down.  AMLO also has little interest in foreign affairs, regularly skipping international summits and downplaying external issues in general.  The cherry on top- AMLO cannot even speak English nor has he shown much interest in learning the language of global communication.

These displays of bombast, along with his strong opposition to foreign ownership of Mexico’s powerful energy sector (which he views as the theft of Mexico’s wealth) have earned AMLO a scathing evaluation from the international media and foreign investors.  Furthermore, I believe that AMLO’s anti-American views have led him to deliberately use migration and drug trafficking into the United States as a political weapon.  Despite the negative verdict from the global elite, the Mexican pueblo see AMLO quite differently.  According to Morning Consult, the President commands a 62% approval rating, far higher than Donald Trump or the world leaders more comfortable at Davos have ever received.  What accounts for this popularity?  After 30 years (1988-2018) of neoliberal governments who tailor-made an economic and legal framework favorable to foreign investment and maximum economic integration with the US, poverty and inequality remained endemic.  A typical Mexican’s life is one of misery, with long working hours for low salaries in manual labor while extortion and gang violence rip through communities.  When wealthy Mexicans live privileged lives behind walls and armed guards, no wonder there is resentment.

AMLO’s government has flipped the script by doubling the minimum wage and massively expanding social welfare to Mexico’s poor.  AMLO, never one to shy away from the cameras, has taken personal credit for impoverished Mexicans’ newfound fortunes.  Still, despite the change in rhetoric, AMLO has not taken the sorts of drastic measures seen in Hugo Chavez’ Venezuela that wrecked Latin America’s once most-prosperous society.  The main reason- Mexico’s constitution.  AMLO has consistently been frustrated by the constitutional limits imposed by his predecessors to institutionalize Mexico’s neoliberal framework.  These include protections for foreign companies, guaranteed autonomy of the Mexican Central Bank and regulatory agencies, and congressional proportional representation lest one party become too powerful.  While one can debate the integrity and credibility of these agencies, neither AMLO nor Sheinbaum can hide the debacle on the Mexican Stock Exchange BMV the day after MORENA’s landslide victory.  This victory was so complete, that MORENA and its left-wing allies are only three Senate seats away from the constitutional majority that so frightens Mexican and international elites.

Judging by the lopsided election results, ordinary Mexicans have clearly given their approval to the country’s new direction, despite the record cartel violence and foreign investor concerns.  On the other hand, Mexican elites, among them Mexico's wealthy Jewish community and foreign investors are concerned for the future of Mexico as a safe place to do business.  Ordinary Mexicans, suffering under widespread corruption and cartel violence, are likely to mock the elite concern that Mexico’s rule of law is in danger.  Mexico is thus deeply mired in polarization, giving Americans some relief that we are not alone in this worldwide phenomenon.   Following the meltdown in the Mexican markets, Sheinbaum  has attempted to reassure foreign investors, promising to “act with dialogue, harmony, and great responsibility”.  While Sheinbaum is seen as more technocratic and less charismatic than AMLO, the need to please Mexico’s frustrated pueblo along with her former boss, Mexico’s next president will have no choice but to walk the tightrope lest we have another Venezuela on our border.  For the sake of American national security, we must hope President Sheinbaum chooses the path of pragmatism, not showmanship and nationalization.