Justice for A Rotten Regime?

Iran's regime may not fall tomorrow, but we must still hold out hope for the future.

Here’s an intriguing thought exercise. Imagine a world where Jews, Christians, and Muslims all live in peace and harmony in the Middle East. Gone are the chants from the Arab Street for martyrdom and resistance against the “Zionist Occupation” and in their place you have thriving synagogues with stained glass Stars of David in the bustling neighborhoods of Baghdad, Cairo, Beirut, and Damascus. There would be no intifadas, no Al-Qaeda, and no endless debate over Palestinian statehood. In this utopian world, such horrors including 9/11, a decade-plus quagmire in Iraq, October 7, and finally the mere existence of the Islamic Republic of Iran would be relegated to our nightmares while Lion and Sun would proudly drape the skies of a free Iran. And for anyone who still carries a grudge against Israel, Gaza would be thriving and peaceful as well.

Of course, the scenario you have just read lies in the realm of ethereal fantasy, not objective reality. However, if we play our cards correctly and carefully, we can move our objective reality in a more positive direction. Indeed, we may be looking at a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to destroy the main source of instability in the Middle East— forever.

There is no doubt that the strategic situation of the Iranian regime has been drastically undermined since Hamas commander Yahya Sinwar made the catastrophic decision to launch a barbaric attack against Israeli civilians on October 7, 2023. First, came the evisceration of Iran’s once-feared “Axis of Resistance,” a Tehran-funded terror network intended to, in the words of the Stimson Center’s Arman Mahmoudian, not only carry out the Islamic Republic’s sinister goals but also provide a strategic buffer to “retaliate in the event of a direct attack.” This axis, comprised of Hamas, the Assad Regime in Syria, and various Shiite militias across Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, and Iraq has suffered a death by a thousand cuts at the hands of the far-superior Israeli Defense Forces and Syria’s new president Ahmed Al-Sharaa. The Assad Regime is gone. Hamas and Hezbollah are a shadow of their former selves. Yemen’s Houthis, the most fanatical of an already radical alliance, have their own agenda which may or may not suit Iran’s interests.

Second came the wreckage from 12-day War launched by Israel and the subsequent Operation Midnight Hammer launched by the United States. These attacks, previously chronicled on this blog, shattered the myth of Iranian invincibility of which its clerical and security establishment had long boasted. While Supreme Leader and ideologue extraordinaire Ali Khamenei survived, his security elite were not so fortunate. It’s not so easy to reconstitute when almost your entire military leadership is wiped out in just 12 days. Finally, it is abundantly clear that the revolutionary clerical regime has lost its legitimacy with the Iranian people. What began on December 28 as a protest by the merchants of the famed Grand Bazaar of Tehran against the collapse of the Iranian Rial quickly spiraled out of the regime’s control as a cross-section of Iranian society against the brazen corruption and militancy of the regime took control of the streets across the nation.

And the brutal response, involving mass murder, torture, and indiscriminate violence to the legitimate demands of the Iranian people has been nothing short of appalling.

So, where does this crisis of Iran’s illegitimate and tyrannical regime leave the United States, Israel, and our partners across the region and the world? According to some analysts cited by Reuters, despite the never-ending tempest endured by Khamenei and his cronies, this cohort, especially the notorious Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), will manage to hang on— at least for the short term. According to Iranian American expert Vali Nasr, “For this sort of thing to succeed, you have to have crowds in the streets for a much longer period of time. And you have to have a breakup of the state. Some segments of the state, and particularly the security forces, have to defect.” In other words, while the regime is certainly in an indefinite crisis mode, the world still needs patience before a collapse. Such assessments are shared by Israeli intelligence. And as everyone should know, whenever Israeli intelligence reveals anything, the world better know they don’t f*** around.

Let’s assume that the path towards dislodging the Iranian regime will diverge from a simple Hollywood ending. That is why the United States, albeit with incredible caution, must consider some sort of kinetic option. And thanks to the incredible bravery and operational efficiency of the US Armed Forces, there are many options to choose from.

Let’s start with a so-called decapitation strike that either kidnaps or assassinates Supreme Leader Khamenei, a man who, unlike Bashar Al-Assad, is far too ideologically zealous to simply board a flight to a quiet exile in Moscow. To the inner circle around President Trump, this option must be tempting, considering the success of Operation Absolute Resolve, where not a single American was killed and the main objective, the apprehension of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, was swiftly accomplished. While a decapitation strike may sound like a quick action with a feel-good aftertaste, it would not change the reality that even if the head is removed, the body, 190,000 committed IRGC armed personnel and hundreds of thousands more reservists, would remain. Simply, it would be another Venezuela, where Chavista loyalists still maneuver all the levers of power.

Next, we have a regime change strike. This option would involve a prolonged campaign of intense airstrikes against targets across Iran, hoping to finally break the regime once and for all. It appears that the Trump Administration is not inclined to follow through with such an audacious option, especially if it includes the infamous “boots on the ground” situation the American public is eager to avoid. I am certainly in support of the administration’s approach, considering that such an attack would result in a true all-out war with ghastly consequences for everyone involved, including the Iranian people who have suffered for almost 50 years under the most vile regime one can imagine. Especially now that the protests appear to have been suppressed in the most brutal manner, such a strike may even be counterproductive.

And finally there exists the option of a theatrical strike: an operation targeting IRGC and military sites across Iran that satisfies the president’s threat to punish Khamenei and the regime for mass murdering their own people— without going all-in on regime change. The purpose of such a strategy would be preventing an escalation that would endanger the lives of American soldiers in the region and also much of the global supply of petroleum crude and with it global economic stability. After Qatar’s harrowing experiences in the past year, it shouldn’t surprise anyone that our Arab regional partners want no part in any kinetic action, even if it’s merely symbolic. However, because Washington, Tehran, and Jerusalem as well have long displayed red lines at each other, Arab States may have little alternative except to hope for the best.

Ultimately, it appears that the Trump Administration is resigned towards a theatrical strike, the approach I agree with. It won’t dislodge a regime that has everything to lose and nothing to gain by giving in to the Iranian people’s demands, but it will, I hope, encourage future caution by Tehran, especially over the nuclear program and any additional Axis of Resistance adventurism. As for the hopes of the Iranian people to enter the modern world, free from the appalling, there is one silver lining. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei turns 87 years old in April, and his most viable successor, former Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, was killed in a helicopter crash two years ago. This may be a false hope, considering that Khamenei will do everything to ensure his brutal legacy survives his death. But hey, it never hurt anyone to carry a sliver of optimism in today’s uncertain and dangerous world. And maybe, just maybe, Iran will be free again.