Is Western Support for Ukraine on its Last Legs?

Here is another article I wrote back in October that remains quite relevant now. Ukraine Aid, due to the strong opposition of "MAGA" congressmen has, as of Mid-January, still failed to pass Congress.

For many a casual news observer, the past several weeks have been filled with headlines warning of impending doom. From a political meltdown in Washington, a new war in the Middle East, and even another pandemic, there is no shortage of spooky material for newspaper editors, click-hungry journalists, and even the World Health Organization (WHO) to offer the public just in time for Halloween. As if The Exorcist: Believer’s release on the 50th anniversary of the original horror classic isn’t scary enough, we have the WHO warning that Dengue Fever is expected to “take off” in the coming years, along with talk of a full-scale regional war in the Middle East to give us plenty of restlessness and nightmares. Another section of this orchestra, while less noticeable due to the long-running duration of the war, is news that the United States and its NATO allies may be about to pull the plug on Ukraine’s response to the 2022 Russian invasion, along with the dramatic consequences of such a collective decision.

Photo Credit- Reuters

So, what then has led to this state of panic? The start of Ukraine’s international troubles began with a decision by one of Ukraine’s closest allies, Poland, to completely ban the import of cheap Ukrainian grain that would almost certainly push thousands of Polish farmers into a state of financial distress and bankruptcy. Ukraine used to send its economically vital grain exports through the Black Sea on its southern coast, until the Russian invasion made the logistics of such maritime operations daunting. The Polish ban threatened to deepen the crisis of the largely aid-dependent Ukrainian economy, prompting Ukraine to make a desperate decision to launch a trade war with its ally Poland. It was this trade war that led Poland to shock the world- starting from September 21, 2023, Poland would no longer supply Polish weapons to Ukraine.

Since Poland has taken an outsized role in Ukraine’s defense since the conflict began last year, such a decision was met with quite a bit of handwringing from outlets such as The Atlantic, a publication for whom doom-prophesizing has become a business model. However, we need to understand the Polish perspective of the situation, lest we fall into the trap of accusing Poland of helping the Russian invasion. First, Poland has made clear that they will continue to be a transit country for all military equipment going into Ukraine. Bilateral disputes with Ukraine do not dampen the existential concerns in the Polish psyche about Russian territorial ambitions. After all, Poland has repeatedly been a target of those ambitions for more than 300 years.

Thus, the most profound reason why we should not fault Poland for ending direct military assistance to Ukraine are the defense needs of Poland itself. Poland has already emptied its old Soviet weapons stockpiles and is now transitioning to a reliance on American weapons for its own defense. With no more weapons to give to Ukraine or even defend itself, Poland must prepare itself lest Russia be tempted to use military force against Poland again. Finally, Poland’s ruling Law and Justice party also has domestic concerns beyond just farmers. Polish patience with Ukrainian refugees has grown thin in 2023. A recent survey conducted by the Polish newspaper Rzeczpospolita shows that now approximately 40% of Poles want to cease all social assistance for Ukrainian refugees and focus instead on the needs of native Poles. With a national election on the horizon, the authorities in Warsaw cannot escape this growing trend.

Another crack in Ukraine’s armor came recently from another country on its western border- the small and little-known mountain republic of Slovakia. On September 30, former Slovak prime minister Robert Fico, who had long accused the United States of provoking Russia to invade Ukraine and had been on record opposing any more military aid to the country, won the country’s national election and is expected to formally assume power in the coming days. Fico’s incoming policy is in line with Slovak public opinion, according to an election day survey of Slovak voters when 55% expressed the opinion that weapons deliveries to Ukraine prolong the conflict.

As with Poland though, we should view developments in Slovakia with an even larger grain of salt. Like Poland, Slovakia has also emptied out its military depots of Russian-made weapons and must prioritize its own territorial defense in future arms production and procurement. Unlike Poland, Slovakia is a bit player in geopolitics. With a population smaller than Minnesota and an economy smaller than New Mexico, Slovakia’s economy and security depend wholly on its EU and NATO memberships. No Slovak leader can escape these realities without flirting with economic suicide.

However, the most concerning development for the Pro-Ukraine crowd, rather than events in small and medium-sized countries that border Ukraine, are events in a very large country far away from Ukraine- the United States. While no longer comprising most of the international assistance, the United States has been by far Ukraine’s largest financial supporter since Russia invaded, totaling more than $110 billion according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Without American support in the early days of the war, it is likely that Ukraine would have fallen or at least lost significantly more territory.

That is why the current political fiasco in Washington is so concerning for so many. It is not just a few politicians out to grab attention and headlines. There is real fatigue in the United States for funding a faraway military conflict with little chance of resolution for the foreseeable future. According to a recent Reuters/Ipsos survey, only 41% of Americans felt that further military aid to Ukraine is necessary. While Ukraine fatigue is often guided by legitimate concerns about our domestic problems, every American should understand the consequences of a sudden halt to our assistance- and not only for Ukraine itself.

Unlike Poland and Slovakia, the United States has more than enough military production capacity to provide as many weapons and other resources as possible to Ukraine as long as necessary- and do so without dangerously depleting our own military readiness. Furthermore, the country needs more than just weapons- it needs massive economic and humanitarian aid. Removing the largest source of this aid may not guarantee an immediate Ukrainian collapse, but it would make incremental Russian military gains much easier. And should Russia make more advances in Ukraine, the consequences go from bad to worse. Not only would this lead to more civilian casualties and displacement, but a chaotic abandonment a-la Afghanistan would also leave NATO countries on Ukraine’s western border in danger of Russian coercion and sabotage.

Ultimately, we must seek out a better solution to the conflict in Ukraine, rather than an abrupt halt or a denial of the reality of Ukraine fatigue followed by endless proxy war. With many commentators, including myself, beginning to doubt Ukraine’s ability to obtain a complete military victory, we need to look ahead for a path where the fighting no longer drags on ad infinitum nor where Ukraine, along the rest of Eastern Europe, are abandoned to Russia’s mercy. Finding such a goldilocks solution will be one of the greatest challenges of American policymakers for years to come. Otherwise, some of the gloomy headlines we have all grown accustomed to seeing may manifest themselves as a grim and deadly future.