Georgian Nightmare

The country of Georgia has certainly been on my mind lately in the most troubling way

When you hear the word Georgia, what comes to your mind?  The world-famous peaches?   The University of Georgia Bulldogs?  Or perhaps even Gladys Knight's Midnight Train?  You probably do not imagine ancient monasteries surrounded by jagged peaks, a bizarre alphabet resembling spaghetti, or brutal post-Soviet conflicts.  In that case, let me introduce you to the former Soviet Republic known in English as Georgia and by the locals as Sakartvelo.  Situated between Russia and Turkey on the east coast of the Black Sea, Georgia is home to 3.7 million people, a population roughly equal to the city of Los Angeles.  Of the Post-Soviet Republics, Georgia has historically, along with Ukraine and the three Baltic States, pursued some of the boldest strategies in distancing itself from the newly formed Russian Federation.  There is even a statue of Ronald Reagan in the capital Tbilisi whose head points to the north- a not-so-subtle slight to Georgia’s former rulers in Moscow.

This distancing came to a head in 2008 when George W. Bush flirted with crossing Russia’s reddest of red lines and offering Georgia a formal membership in NATO.  More than 13 years before embarking on a similar adventure in Ukraine, then-Prime Minister (but in reality still puppet master) Vladimir Putin reacted to Bush’s invitation by launching a military invasion disguised as a “peace operation” which Putin claimed was conducted to protect civilians in the separatist regions of Georgia Abkhazia and South Ossetia.  In reality, Putin, ever the liar, sought the violent overthrow the Georgian government of President Mikheil Saakashvili and the establishment of a government in Tbilisi more accommodating to Russian interests.  Following a bloody five-day conflict that killed nearly 850 people and displaced more than 30,000, French diplomatic intervention eventually compelled the two sides to reach a ceasefire.  While Saakashvili was allowed to remain in power, Russian troops have remained in Abkhazia and South Ossetia ever since- thus blocking any pathway to NATO indefinitely.

Now, more than 15 years after his war, Putin may finally be achieving his wish.  Saakashvili was ousted in 2013 and quickly fled to Ukraine.  In his place sits Bidzina Ivanishvili, Georgia’s wealthiest man.  Unlike the flamboyant Saakashvili, who now sits in prison, Ivanishvili prefers to rule the country from the shadows rather than engage in the boring formalities of day-to-day governance.  In the so-called “wild 1990s” that followed the dissolution of the Soviet Union, Ivanishvili, then living in Moscow, earned a fortune in the Russian banking, real estate, and metals extraction sectors, of course with all the dirty double-dealing such business transactions would entail.  As if Ivanishvili weren’t mysterious enough, he reaches the status of full-on James Bond villain with his collection of exotic animals, including lemurs, kangaroos, and even sharks. 

While Bidzina Ivanishvili is not a Russian by birth or genetics, recent events have proven how “Russian” he is thanks to his attempt to reorient his country in the changing international system.   For the last year, the former Soviet Republic has been locked in an epic political struggle.  The source of this struggle has been the introduction by the ruling Georgian Dream Party to the parliament a law forcing non-governmental and non-commercial entities who receive 20% or more of their donations and revenue from abroad to register as so-called “foreign agents” with the threat of prison terms in case of failure to register.  In context, Georgian Dream has few definitive principles beyond advancing Ivanishvili’s personal interests.  While the Foreign Agents law, if passed, would not explicitly shut down these organizations, it would allow the government to aggressively audit them, potentially creating the conditions for restricting their activities in the future.  In the worst case scenario, Georgia would be plunged back into Russia’s sphere of influence. Unsurprisingly, Ivanishvili’s and Georgian Dream’s opponents, many of whom work closely with these groups, the proposed Foreign Agents law is no less than a Georgian nightmare.

The legislation has prompted polarizing international reactions. The US State Department is “gravely disappointed” in efforts which “could limit freedom of expression” while the European Union warned that the law, if implemented, would be “incompatible with EU values and standards”.  On the other hand, Moscow has expressed its satisfaction.  Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov claims the efforts of the Georgian government are no more serious than the Foreign Agents Registration Act passed by the US congress in 1938 to block the nefarious activities of Nazi Germany in the United States.  Speaking of the United States, the Kremlin has returned to its time-honored and highly predictable tradition of blaming outsiders, particularly Uncle Sam, for the massive protests and backlash that have rocked Tbilisi for weeks in opposition to the foreign agents law. 

There is no doubt that the Georgian people deeply oppose the Foreign Agents law, not so much for its content, but for what it will mean for Georgia’s international position.  A survey released last year by the International Republican Institute showed support in the country for membership in NATO at a resounding 79% and joining the European Union at an even more lopsided 86%, with only 9% opposed.  With Brussels warning that implementation of restrictions of NGOs would derail Georgia's EU membership hopes, no wonder Georgians are alarmed.  And with Ivanishvili and his minions feeling threatened by public opinion, it is also no wonder they are determined to push through the law and respond to the opposition with violence from the security forces.  After all, should Georgian Dream lose the parliamentary elections upcoming this October,  the corrupt Bidzina Ivanishvili risks repeating the fate of his predecessor Mikheil Saakashvili- a prison sentence.  Furthermore, Ivanishvili, who has long espoused conspiracy theories, probably fears, as does Vladimir Putin, becoming the victim of a CIA-sponsored overthrow.  This existential fear is why he is willing to bet the farm on an extremely unpopular law. 

So, is there any hope for Georgia?  After all, even without the law on Foreign Agents, Georgia’s opposition remains weak and divided as the Georgian Dream employs dirty tricks such as coercing state employees to vote for them. Thus, the main solution to Georgia’s nightmare must come from abroad.  Judging by the bloc’s helplessness against 2024’s three great powers, it seems unlikely that the weak and ineffective European Union will provide Georgia’s miracle remedy.  I apologize to all Europeans reading this, but you know it’s true.  Instead, it will likely take serious diplomatic and economic intervention from the world’s still (Sorry, China) most powerful country- the United States.  Dual legislation proposed last week in congress offers both carrots and sticks to Tbilisi.  Should the Foreign Agents bill be dropped, congress will work toward a free trade agreement with Georgia along with extra security assistance against Russian subversion.  Should the bill pass, sanctions and travel bans will be unleashed against Georgian Dream officials. 

For the sake of the future of Georgia, we all must support those opposed to Ivanishvili’s regime, and pray he eventually faces more than just a travel ban.  In my humble opinion, prison would be best.