George Bush was right- there really is an “Axis of Evil”

Why it’s time to drop this once taboo phrase

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In January 2002, President George W. Bush gave his first State of the Union address to congress.  This State of the Union took place in an atmosphere much heavier than any other State of the Union address in recent memory- the immediate aftermath of the massive terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001.  This address gave us one of the more memorable quotations of any State of the Union- the “Axis of Evil”.  Bush publicly called out three states in particular- Iraq, Iran, and North Korea.  These countries, according to Bush, were led by fanatical regimes that supported international terrorism, sought weapons of mass destruction, and brutalized their own citizens.  With its connotation of the so-called “axis” of fascist states in World War II, Bush intended to bring complete international condemnation, isolation, and ultimately collapse to the three regimes. 

However, after Bush’s 2003 invasion of Iraq that toppled Iraqi strongman Saddam Hussein found no such weapons of mass destruction, the phrase quickly became more of an inspiration for late-night jokes and serious attacks against his administration than a true reflection of international relations.  More than 20 years after Bush uttered these fateful words, the international situation has grown even more complex and dark, even with Iraq’s removal from the “axis”.  First, Iran and North Korea remain as totalitarian and “evil” as ever, with the latter now a nuclear power and the former constantly on the verge of becoming one.  However, the key difference between now and 2002 is the addition of two much larger members whose capabilities far exceed anything Bush’s trio could even dream of- the Russian Federation and the People’s Republic of China.

Today, both Russia and China have the intent, and some fear the capability, to achieve the goals held by their brutal leaders of decades past- Josef Stalin and Mao Tse-Tung.  While most commentators talk about their desire to topple the American-led “world order”, I try to look at Russian and Chinese goals through a more realist, less idealistic lens.  Today, Russian and Chinese strongmen Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping seek something far simpler than any unwinding of a “world order.”  Rather, both men, in their own bubbles of delusion and paranoia, seek to remove the United States from their own regional “sphere of influence” so they can impose their own systems of totalitarianism and corruption on their neighbors.  And as Putin’s brutal all-out invasion of Ukraine has proven to the world, the two men are willing to use force to do so.

Shortly before Putin’s poorly-executed and brutal attack on Ukraine in February 2022, Russian diplomats presented the United States with an astonishingly bold set of demands- not only cease the expansion of the NATO alliance, but also expel all new NATO members added after 1997.  The latter demand was a brazen ploy for the Russian elite, long obsessed with controlling a “buffer zone”, to reclaim the sphere of influence that they lost with the dissolution of the Soviet Union.  While Russia had long made these demands, the 2021 demand was nothing less than an ultimatum, with the threat of “military measures” should these demands go unanswered.  By giving countries such as Poland, the Czech Republic, and the Baltic States no agency whatsoever to determine their political alliances, Putin and his cronies in the Kremlin have made the strategic decision to go back to the 19th century, when kings and emperors could simply conquer territory by force, without consequences or consideration of the concerns of the local population.

Likewise, Xi Jinping’s China has made similar demands of the United States, demanding treatment as an equal power without any consideration for neighboring countries concerned with Xi’s proven track record of coercive diplomacy.  In recent years, Xi has militarized China’s many territorial disputes on both land and sea, rejecting all attempts at compromise and mutual understanding.  A country that sinks foreign fishing boats, murders Vietnamese fisherman, attacks Indian soldiers in the Himalayas, and regularly “patrols” the territorial waters of other sovereign countries is not one who should be trusted with the role of security chief in the Asia Pacific region.  Most menacing is China’s repeated refusal to rule out military action against Taiwan, the self-governing island claimed by Mainland China.  That China is considering using force, rather than diplomacy, to settle this dispute involving an island so critical to global trade should certainly worry all of us.

The recent violence in the Middle East forces us to recognize the third and final villain of the new Axis of Evil- the Islamic Republic of Iran.  Like Russia and China, Iran seeks to become the dominant power in its region, in this case the oil-rich Middle East, and expel the United States.  Since the ascension of hardline clerics to power in 1979, Iran has proven time and time again that it is willing to use violence to accomplish this goal, whether through the Lebanese militia Hezbollah, Shia Muslim militias in Iraq, or the Sunni Muslim anti-Israel front Hamas.  While there is no clear evidence that Iran was directly involved in planning the brutal attack on Israeli towns near the border of the Gaza Strip, there is more than enough evidence that without help from the Islamic Republic, Hamas would not exist, let alone be capable of pulling off such a brazen attack whose brutality rivaled that of the Russian attack in Ukraine last year.

So, what brings these events together?  First, as I have already said, all three regimes comprising the new Axis of Evil seek to control their geographic regions, and all see the United States as the biggest obstacle to their plans.  Furthermore, the leadership of the Axis of Evil, whether Xi, Putin, or the Iranian clerics, suffer from what I would call a victim complex.  This victim complex they share is woven by decades if not centuries of what these regimes feel are displays of disrespect and humiliation meant to tear apart China, Russia, and Iran from within and leave them at the mercy of the “evil” United States.  Victimhood is a dangerous phenomenon in international relations, as it almost certainly is bound to evolve on the irreversible path to military aggression.  When lesser methods of coercion fail to achieve their desired results, regimes with a victim complex often feel forced to resort to war, as we have seen in both Ukraine and Israel.

The root of this victim complex shared by the leadership of the Russian Federation, Islamic Republic of Iran, and the People’s Republic of China is found in another flaw in their understanding of international affairs.  Rather than see international relations as a realm of cooperation where all sides can find common ground for mutual benefit, the new Axis of Evil sees international relations through the lens of confrontation and conflict.  In their eyes, a country is either a master or a slave- with no middle ground.  Thus, smaller countries on their borders, especially if they are allies of the United States, are dismissed and insulted as “vassals”, “lapdogs,” and “puppet regimes” whose relationship with the United States is one not of mutual respect, but of master and slave.  Of course, these accusations are false, but they accurately reflect the condescending attitude of the Axis of Evil about the sovereignty of smaller nations in what they determine to be their spheres of influence.

Thus, we now know where to find the source of the current geopolitical instability we see across the globe, in particular on the Eurasian landmass.  The Axis of Evil does not care about the economic consequences of their policies even for their own population, as both Putin and Iran were not stopped from violent destabilization by the threat of economic sanctions alone.  Many suspect that Xi is willing to swallow the massive sanctions guaranteed if he truly feels desperate enough to act out his threats against Taiwan.  Even scarier, the Axis of evil, just like the Axis powers in the 1930s, are harmonizing their rhetoric, conducting joint military exercises, and becoming more closely integrated than ever.  Confrontation with the United States and establishing a totalitarian world order is the priority above all else.  After all, Russia was willing to throw its former friend Israel under the bus just to spite the United States and please Iran.  Why wouldn’t China or Iran do the same with one of their “allies”?

In conclusion, is there anything we in the United States, or in allied countries do about this new Axis of Evil?  That, unfortunately, is the great question that will dominate the next several decades of international affairs.  There is no easy answer, nor is simple tough rhetoric and displays of military power enough to change the warped mindset of Chinese, Iranian, and Russian leaders.  Instead, we may be stuck dealing with crisis management lest a small conflict turn into a regional conflagration.  The need for such firefighting ought to be shared by anyone who cares about our future as a civilization. 

Disclaimer- I hold no ill will toward the general population of Iran, China, or Russia.  They too are victims of their violent regimes.