From Russia with Vengeance

Photo Credit- Euronews

How far exactly do Russia's territorial ambitions go?

In February 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin executed perhaps one of the biggest blunders in all of world history.  After years of attempting to halt Ukraine’s drift toward the United States, European Union, and NATO with trade wars, hybrid wars, misinformation, and all other methods of blackmail imaginable, Putin crossed the line with the ultimate act of coercive power- an all-invasion to topple the Ukrainian government with military force.  This heinous act surprised many Americans, Western Europeans, as well as citizens of nations many thousands of miles away from the borders of either Ukraine or Russia.  However, there was a group of countries whose citizens, while shocked and horrified by the atrocities committed by Russian troops, were not surprised.  For the citizens of countries such as Poland and the Baltic States of Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia, all of whom are barely more than one generation removed from Russian dominated Soviet Communism, seemingly illogical displays of force from Russian leaders are just par for the course.

Back in 2008, the former Soviet Republic of Georgia in the Caucasus mountains was under attack from Russia.  Using its proxies in two separatist regions that broke away from the new republic in 1992, Russia retaliated to the administration of Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili’s intention to join NATO by launching a full-scale invasion of the country.  While diplomatic intervention by France ultimately stopped the invasion and kept Saakashvili in power, the conflict sent a chill through Russia’s former satellite states.  In a show of solidarity to the embattled nation, Polish President Lech Kaczynski, Ukrainian President Viktor Yuschchenko, and the presidents of all three Baltic States a promptly made a visit to the Georgian Capital of Tbilisi.  While there, Kaczynski uttered these words that have since become prophetic: “Today it is Georgia, tomorrow Ukraine, the day after tomorrow the Baltic States, and then perhaps the time will come for my country, Poland.”  Less than two years later, Kaczynski was killed in a plane crash that to this day has been suspected of being perpetrated by the Russian government. 

Kaczynski’s 2008 prediction, dismissed at the time as a reflection of Poland’s PTSD from 50 years of occupation, proved correct with Putin’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine.  Even with their NATO membership and the security guarantee it offers, nations such as Poland and the Baltic States still hold deep concerns for the future.  Within minutes of the initial bombardment of Ukrainian cities, Lithuanian foreign minister Gabrielius Landsbergis wrote on the website formerly known as Twitter that “We in Lithuania know it very well that Ukraine is fighting not for us in the region, Europe, and everyone in the democratic world”.   Also, the man currently holding the Polish presidency, Andrzej Duda, warned in an interview with PBS that should Ukraine collapse, Russia “will not stop.  It will want to bite off other pieces of territory.”  Thus, these warnings from Polish and Lithuanian officials make us wonder, if President Putin really does seek more territory beyond the whole of Ukraine, how far do these ambitions go?

If one listens to Russia’s warmongering TV pundits and propagandists, as well as former Russian President-turned drunken lunatic Dmitry Medvedev, the answer is quite simple- Russia has no end point for its military ambitions.  Since Ukraine was attacked, such threats of invasion, missile attack, and even the use of nuclear weapons against dozens of sovereign nations have become commonplace on Russian TV.  If you want to test your sanity, try watching clips of Russian State TV or reading Russian propaganda articles, as I have unfortunately done- much to the detriment of my mental well-being.  On one episode on the notorious TV Program 60 Minutes hosted by the acerbic Olga Skabeyeva, a guest pundit named Nikolai Vavilov claimed that cities such as Berlin and Paris would eventually be incorporated into a new Russian Empire encompassing all of Europe.  Vladimir Solovyov, another venomous a**hole who also hosts a propaganda program went one step further- that Russian troops could go full Call of Duty: Modern Warfare II and take Washington, DC.  Furthermore, Medvedev, through his regular social media usage of taunts and racial slurs against almost every country except for China, has also stooped to habitually threatening NATO countries with the same violent eventualities broached on Russian state TV.

How seriously should we take all these seemingly ludicrous threats?  After all, in the real world Russian troops have struggled to hold on to the Ukrainian territories they control now and seem woefully incapable of making a serious offensive deeper into Ukraine, let alone into a NATO country.  I am not interested in Russian capabilities, but instead in Russian intentions.  And as we can clearly see, Russian president Putin intends to control most, if not all of Ukraine, with the possible exception of the far western regions of Ukraine near the borders of Poland and Hungary that were never controlled by any Russian entity until after World War II.  While Russia may be satisfied with these regions as a rump state with no economic viability, this does not mean that Russia’s intentions stop in Ukraine.  In fact, my study since February 2022 has given me every indication that several other countries remain in Putin’s plans.

The most obvious that come to my mind are Georgia and Moldova- two former Soviet Republics with neither the NATO membership nor the natural resources to negotiate on an equal footing with their former colonial masters in Moscow.  Of the two, Georgia may not even need to be invaded.  Since Saakashvili’s ouster in 2012, the small Caucasian republic has been governed from the shadows by Bidzina Ivanishvili, Georgia’s wealthiest man.  Since Ivanishvili made his wealth in Moscow during the chaotic years following the collapse of the Soviet Union, he sees little reason for his country to be too closely associated with Western international organizations.  Thus, rather than a victim of another Russian invasion, Georgia is more likely to see more creeping Russian influence over the coming years.  On the other hand, Moldova, a tiny country sandwiched between Ukraine and Romania and entirely dependent on Western aid, has been sinisterly mentioned by Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov as “the next Ukraine” used by the USA as an “anti-Russia”.  This sort of threat, along with allegations of a Russian-backed coup attempt in February 2023, leaves little doubt that Putin and his associates would like to swallow Moldova as well.

However, the strategic significance of Georgia and Moldova pales in comparison to three more former Soviet Republics- the Baltic States.  Sandwiched between Russian ally Belarus and Russian exclave Kaliningrad, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia are seen as challenging for NATO to defend.  Despite their small size (the three countries combined are smaller than Oklahoma), a hostile incursion into one or all the Baltic States would have dire implications for international security and the global economy, considering that they are all members of NATO and the European Union.  Western countries would be faced with a no-win decision of a large-scale war with a heavily armed enemy or the collapse of the Western political and economic order as three members are yanked out of it against their will. 

While neither the Baltic States nor Georgia and Moldova carry the emotional significance for neither the Russian public nor the Russian elite that Ukraine does, President Putin has one very powerful reason to want the Baltic States back.  Beyond his aspiration for historical revenge against the first three Soviet Republics to declare independence in 1990, a successful Russian occupation of the Baltic states would most certainly lead to the collapse of NATO as the Article 5 collective defense clause is proven a mirage and the whole Western alliance declares geopolitical bankruptcy.  I have been to Lithuania.  Driving through the country you see how flat it is, how small it is (driving from one side to the other only takes three hours), and how easy it would be for the Russian army to occupy it should Western countries abrogate their obligation.  That is why we must do all we can to prevent Putin or his successor from even considering such a catastrophic military intervention.

Beyond former Soviet Republics such as Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova, or the Baltic States of Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia, it becomes quite difficult to assess how far the Russian military leadership would like to continue its imperial quest.  Polish historian Daniel Botskowski claims that President Putin holds a serious grudge against not only Ukraine and the three Baltic States, but Poland as well.  According to Botskowski, this grudge stems from role played by the Polish trade union Solidarity and the Ukrainian and Lithuanian national movements in the collapse of the Soviet Union.  This historical fact, plus the stridently anti-Russian political positions Ukraine, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia have taken since the 1990s has only toughened the Russian president’s resolve to see these countries erased from the political map as they were during the Tsarist era.  While Botskowski also claims that Putin would like to control Finland, it seems unlikely to me that he holds the same kind of grudge against Finland due to Finland’s long-time special relationship with Russia that only collapsed after Russia attacked Ukraine in 2022.

Rather, it has become clear to me that Putin, his militant advisors and yes-men, and Putin’s likely successor view Finland, along with most countries in Europe and even outside of Europe through a similar lens.  Since the Soviet Era, Russian strategic thinking has come to view the United States, Russia, and China as the only “sovereign” states, with all the others, whether they be Finland, Cuba, Germany, or Burkina Faso (where a Pro-Russian military junta recently assumed power) as pawns in Russia’s confrontation with the United States.  Since the Russian elite has come to believe that the United States seeks to break up Russia through popular uprisings and civil war, every country that has a military alliance with the United States is, as the weaker partner in the relationship, automatically a puppet and vassal state of the Americans.  In Russia’s ideal world, the larger European economies, such as the United Kingdom and Germany, whom Putin believes are under the control of the United States, should simply be junior partners to Russia as Russia dominates much of Eurasia, China dominates East Asia, and the Americans retreat back to the Western Hemisphere.

This sort of hysterical and conspiratorial thinking does not bode well for the future of international security on the Eurasian landmass.  All attempts to reason with Russia to limit its militarism and reassure Russia that neither the United States nor any other country has aggressive intentions have failed.  Russia’s worldview- where countries of the former Soviet Union (not always excluding NATO members Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia) are its special domain and that other countries are just pawns between the USA, Russia, and China has only hardened.  Thus, to answer the question about whether Russia intends to go has a nebulous answer.  Even though we might laugh at Russia’s military capabilities, we must not ignore Russia’s grand ambitions to shake up global security arrangements in ways where Russia calls the shots.  The ambitions to control other sovereign nations, including those closer to the United States such as Cuba, remain as steadfast as they were during the first Cold War.

So in conclusion, we can see that Russia would like to return all Soviet Republics, especially those who have most loudly criticized Russian policy (Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova, and the Baltic States) with the Baltics being the most dangerous flashpoint due to their memberships in NATO.  For much of the rest of Europe, (with the exception of Poland due to Putin’s grudge against it) and the world, Russia’s ambitions are not defined by a binary “conquer or not conquer” situation, but rather viewed through the lens of confrontation with the United States, where any opposition to Russian policy is viewed in a conspiratorial manner as part of an American plot to destroy Russia.  These conspiratorial beliefs, along with Ukraine’s likely failure to retake more territory in the coming years, mean that we should continue to watch out for Russian ambitions, and pray that Russia is never able to attack a NATO country in the same way it attacked Ukraine.  While we should not be alarmed that a Russian attack on a NATO country is imminent or inevitable, we should at least remain vigilant

All thoughts expressed here are based on my own research and the conclusions I have taken from that research.