Confronting Iran: Sanctions, Strategy, and Security with Gabriel Noronha

Gabriel Noronha, Executive Director of POLARIS National Security and a former State Department official, shares to discuss the Islamic Republic of Iran — its ideology, its regional ambitions, and its stubborn refusal to modernize.

“Time and time again, what the Islamic Republic has done is it has always prioritized its ideology and its revolutionary ambitions over what most normal nations choose to prioritize, which is the wealth of their citizens, the prosperity, the education of their citizens, and peaceful relations with their neighbors." – Gabriel Noronha

The result of putting ideology ahead of prosperity, Gabriel argues, is “the Iranian people are poor and they're not building an economy that is looking to the future. And so Iran is very quickly being left behind because it's refused to do the rational thing.”

His experience, grounded in years of policy work, has been instrumental in exposing and disrupting Iran’s attempts to circumvent U.S. economic sanctions—measures that have significantly impacted the Iranian economy.

Gabriel shares that while countries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE are heavily investing in technology and AI, “Iran is still a petro economy. 40% of government revenue is oil."

As for their foreign policy? Revolution over diplomacy. “Iran has always battled with this question of is it going to be a nation or is it going to be a cause, in this case the cause of terror, the cause of ideological expansion."

When asked about Iran’s relationships with Russia and China, Gabriel is clear: “It’s not a real friendship, it’s a partnership of convenience." As for China: “Iran relies on China for its fiscal lifeline, but for China, Iran doesn’t matter all that much to it."

The regime’s revolutionary ideology has long fueled its nuclear ambitions and regional destabilization efforts. “If you can just imagine the kind of posture they'll take with a nuclear weapon, it'll be far, far worse,” Gabriel warns. “They will be able to say, you can’t hit us back. You can’t retaliate for this because if you do, we will nuke you."

Despite ongoing negotiations, Gabriel remains skeptical: “For Khamenei,” he explains, “to give the kind of concessions that would actually ensure that Iran doesn't get a nuclear program in the future, they consider those surrenders."

What about regime change? Gabriel points to Iran's economic decay and internal unrest, but remains realistic: “There’s always a chance,” he says. “But right now that is the missing piece. We haven’t had an opposition that is mature enough or coordinated enough to present that alternative."

Even a military strike wouldn’t fully solve the nuclear problem. “You set it back a long ways, but you do not end it entirely,” he admits. There are now hundreds of nuclear scientists who have spent 15 years developing the technology.

In the end, Gabriel concludes that pressure may be the only path to a meaningful deal: “There’s sort of the sense that if you destroy its program, now that paves the way for a deal,” he explains, “where the Iranians would finally agree to the concessions that would make it a deal worth passing."

Listen to the full episode to hear more from Gabriel Noronha and follow along with Season 2 as we explore today’s top geopolitical challenges.

You can follow Samuel Waitt for additional insights on world politics by subscribing to his Substack: samuelwaitt.substack.com and read the book: Waitt, What?: Reflections on Global Politics – available on Amazon.