Anxiety on the High Seas

China goes full Schoolyard Bully against a smaller neighbor

Over the weekend, as millions of Americans were enjoying the NCAA Men’s and now, thanks to University of Iowa star Caitlin Clark, Women’s Basketball tournaments, an alarming headline popped up on the Fox News website.  As if watching my Iowa Hawkeyes go down in defeat in the ladies’ finals wasn’t difficult enough, Fox News published an article warning its readers of literal World War 3.   Such a headline is, of course, highly unlikely to ease anyone’s mind.  Whatever you think of Fox News (I personally believe the channel is unfairly demonized), the real source of the dire word choice is a media outlet no one will find credible: China Daily, a Chinese Communist Party propaganda newspaper.   Why then has Fox pushed the panic button?  The answer- China is yet again showing its true colors as Asia’s schoolyard bully in the disputed South China Sea.

On March 28, China Daily journalist Yang Xiao published an ominous op-ed: “Manila must be warned against horrors of war.”  By Manila, Chinese propaganda means the Republic of the Philippines, an archipelago nation that also happens to be a staunch US ally.  In his article, Yang equated the current tensions with the fateful assassination of Austrian Archduke Franz Ferdinand by a Serbian nationalist in Sarajevo in 1914 that plunged Europe into World War 1.  Yang boldly accuses the Philippines, like Serbia, of behaving in a “provocative” and “aggressive” manner against a maritime area China considers its own sovereign territory.  Yang goes on to accuse the Philippine government of resorting to “dirty tricks” and plotting to provoke a superpower conflict between the United States and China.  Before praising China’s “exemplary restraint” in the South China Sea, Yang warns that Asia could be faced with a “Sarajevo gunshot” scenario that plunges Asia, like Europe, into major conflict.

Of course, Yang’s blustery propaganda is as saturated with lies as Arnold Schwarzenegger’s body was saturated with steroids in the 1970s.  All you need to do is search YouTube and you will quickly see how Yang’s claims of Filipino aggression fall apart.  To deliver humanitarian supplies to the BRP Sierra Madre, a rusted, inoperable ship tied to a reef in the South China Sea, Filipino coast guards have been forced to encounter all sorts of Chinese harassment and bullying.  These tactics include lasers, bumper boat-like ramming, loud noises, and most aggressive of all- water cannons.  How on earth could anyone seriously claim that tiny Filipino vessels, in the face of much larger Chinese vessels, are the aggressors?  Unless you are a Chinese or Russian propagandist, no serious human being will believe any such nonsense.  To me, Beijing’s claims are just as fantastical as professional golfer Patrick Cantlay’s denials of undignified conduct at the 2023 Ryder Cup.

Now for some context on the political situation in the Philippines.  In 2022, the Philippines elected a new president (Philippine Presidents constitutionally serve only one six-year term), Ferdinand Marcos Jr., known widely by his nickname Bongbong.  The son of dictator Ferdinand Marcos Sr. and legendary shoe collector Imelda Marcos and the father of Philippine congressman Sandro Marcos, Bongbong Marcos has spent his nearly two years in power discarding the controversial legacies of his predecessors.  Beyond not following his father and instead maintaining Philippine democracy, Marcos has reversed course from his China-accommodating, sharp-tongued predecessor Rodrigo Duterte.  In early 2023, the Marcos Administration agreed to expand the US military access to Philippine military bases, a not-so-subtle warning shot at China.  As the crow flies, the northern tip of the Philippines main Luzon island sits only 155 miles (250 kilometers) from Taiwan.  As Marcos continues to sign more strategic agreements and aligns ever-more tightly with China’s rivals, China has unleashed its juvenile tantrums against the Philippines. 

So, will this state of confrontation end in, as China hawk and expert Gordan Chang warned Fox News readers over the weekend, World War Three?  Thankfully, at least for the foreseeable future, I would like to say no.  Whether in democratic countries like the United States and the Philippines or totalitarian regimes like China, news media outlets have a strong incentive to hype an external threat lest their readers become bored and turn elsewhere.  Chang, as a long-time critic of the Chinese Communist Party, certainly wants to make Americans aware of China’s bad behavior so we can be better prepared for all scenarios in case China’s aggression escalate. 

As for the three main actors involved in this confrontation, none clearly have an interest in starting a major international conflict, despite the saber-rattling from China Daily.  Unlike with Taiwan, Beijing does not claim sovereignty over the main islands of the Philippines- just maritime jurisdiction.  Thanks to the collapse of the Ponzi scheme that was China’s real estate market and President Xi Jinping’s ever tightening political control, China’s economy has finally hit a ceiling.  For the rest of Xi’s term (until 2027), China will have no choice but to turn inward rather than repeat Vladimir Putin’s mistake of a costly military adventure.  Thus, Beijing is most likely to continue its aggressive and bullying behavior but refrain from firing bullets against Filipino vessels.

Likewise, neither the United States nor the Philippines have any interest in the situation escalating.  While an American admiral warned Beijing that the United States would not hesitate to defend the Philippines in case of a fatal incident in the South China Sea, Washington is well aware that going to war with a nuclear-armed rival over a few reefs halfway around the world is completely unpalatable for the American public.  Likewise, President Marcos assured during an interview that he would only ask for American armed assistance in case of existential threat to the Philippines.  Marcos has no interest in a major war breaking out in the Western Pacific- a war which would certainly send the Philippine economy into a tailspin.  Marcos has also made clear his lack of interest in any war and has reiterated his country’s commitment to global security and the peaceful resolution of conflicts. 

In conclusion, instead of panicking about war in Asia, we should instead panic about the state of journalism today, where clickbait, fear, and sensationalism are the core of the business model.  China thankfully shows no signs of crossing the threshold from intimidation and aggression short of war to outright military aggression against neighboring countries.  Not even a bully like China has any incentive to provoke a conflict with the United States either.  Thanks to Xi Jinping’s and the Chinese Communist Party’s ill-advised economic policies, as well as reports of Russian-style corruption in the Chinese military, war in Asia is not likely anytime soon.