A Chinese Loyalist Steps on a Banana Peel

A brief update on the latest events coming out of the People's Republic of China

I realize by now I have given a disproportionate amount of my attention on this blog to events in Eastern Europe.  Such a pattern is natural, considering my specialization of the study of that region.  However, I have an audience interested in other matters, with China being one of them.  Thus, it would be a good idea to occasionally give updates about what is going on lately in the Middle Kingdom.  While sometimes obtaining accurate and verifiable information from China can be difficult due to the high level of secrecy in the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), recent information has emerged about a recent casualty of one of President Xi Jinping’s many purges. These purges, along with Xi’s security-focused governance have only made gleaning information from China even more challenging.

The official in question is Qin Gang, China’s former Minister of Foreign Affairs.  Qin had a distinguished career in the CCP, starting in 2010 as the #2 ranking diplomat at the Chinese diplomatic mission in London, followed by 10 years in various jobs at the Ministry of Foreign Affair (including an 18-month stint as Ambassador to the United States), and ultimately culminating in his promotion as the head Minister of Foreign Affairs in 2022.  During this period, Qin and Xi grew to become close confidantes, and so were their wives.  These personal relationships allowed Qin to bypass more senior officials, creating resentment against him within the foreign ministry.  However, in June 2023, Qin disappeared.  While Chinese officials were quick to blame his disappearance on a health issue, most observers quickly discredited these claims and instead believe that Qin simply ended up on the wrong side of Xi Jinping. 

Following further investigation, the most credible theory around Qin’s disappearance involves his extramarital affair with a journalist named Fu Xiaotian.  In the most explosive reveal, Fu was in fact a British spy.  This information was delivered to Beijing by the FSB, Russia’s notorious secret services who reportedly control Europe's heroin trade.  In the shadowy world of high-end interstate espionage, scandals like this can rock powerful leaders to their core.  Xi Jinping likely felt betrayed by Qin’s conduct, and this betrayal cost Qin dearly.  Not only did Qin disappear from public view, but he has been completely erased from the CCP’s records.  While Qin may be living quietly under house arrest, there is also the possibility that he perhaps fell out of a window, or worse.  The final conclusion we can take from this episode is the amount of coordination between Beijing and Moscow.  Whatever lack of access Western intelligence has to the Russian and Chinese regimes, it is certainly compensated by the access they have with each other.

Another topic I will bring to your attention is the tense situation in the South China Sea.  For decades now, this body of water, the economic lifeline of every Asian country, has been disputed between China and several Southeast Asian states.  Standoffs between coast guards, oil workers, fishermen, and other sailors are a common event.  Since these standoffs occur below the threshold of armed conflict, they are not usually front-page news.  The dispute began to escalate in 2012 when Chinese fishermen seized the Scarborough Shoal, a reef only 200 kilometers from the Philippines.  After the Chinese agreed to withdraw from the reef under US pressure, they subsequently reneged on that promise.  Since then, the situation in the South China Sea has been tense, as China has resisted all attempts to constrain its behavior through diplomatic channels.  While fruitless negotiations on a “code of conduct” have continued, China continues to not only harass Southeast Asian countries on the high seas, but it even built military bases there.  The “logic” behind China’s bad behavior remains a mystery, since anyone who shares such information risks falling out of a window.

Since the ascent of President Bongbong Marcos to the Philippine Presidency in 2022 (yes, the son of THAT Marcos), China has retaliated to Marcos’ policy of tightening the Philippines’ security partnership with the United States by escalating its coast guard presence around a rusted maritime vessel, the BRP Sierra Madre with various pressure tactics (again short of war) such as water cannons, ramming Filipino vessels, and military grade lasers all to prevent the Philippines from resupplying its skeleton crew on the vessel.  However, this approach has proven popular with the Filipino people, and is now beginning to bear fruit.  Following diplomatic discussions between the Philippines and China, China has now backed off for the moment and allowed Filipino vessels to resupply the BRP Sierra Madre in January 2024 without interference.  The Philippines can now breathe a sigh of relief, as its effort to stare down the regional bully has paid off.  At least there is one silver lining in today’s troubled world.