America's Pacific Rim Duo

Japan and South Korea grapple with a world dominated by superpowers

This week, President Donald Trump embarked on a highly publicized state visit to Asia, visiting multiple countries and meeting with more than a dozen world leaders. The overwhelming focus of the mainstream press has been the meeting in South Korea between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping to resolve a years-long trade dispute between the two countries. However, there is more to Asia than just China. Yes, China is the big fish, the undisputed regional superpower but, as I have published recently, the region is full of small fish who cannot afford to be ignored. Furthermore, while Trump’s so-called “transactional” worldview of immediate financial gains for the United States will dominate his mind, there are strategic purposes to this visit. And that is where two of America’s closest allies fit into this equation. You may wonder why I haven’t discussed Japan and South Korea very much on this blog. Well now, I will dedicate the entire entry to two countries I will name the Pacific Rim Duo.

In the world today, there are few nations whose destinies are as interwoven with the United States as Japan and South Korea. Home to a combined 80 thousand US servicemembers, including more than 50 thousand in Japan alone, these are two nations who know very well that without the United States, they would not exist as they do today. Reduced to rubble, ruin, and even radioactive ash in the wars of the mid-20^th century, the Japanese and South Korean people have managed, despite their small geographies and limited natural resources, to position themselves as the world’s 4^th and 14^th largest economies in the world. While the Pacific Rim Duo are home to global companies such as Toyota and Samsung as well as global entertainment platforms, I must give the edge to Japan here. I am a true admirer of Studio Ghibli and the work of Hayao Miyazaki, but I absolutely hate K-Pop.

However, this gleaming global image masks serious weaknesses within the Pacific Rim Duo weaknesses that both Tokyo and Seoul know risk the same sort of terminal decline faced by the once-great continent of Europe. First, and most obvious, is that both countries face a severe demographic crisis with no end in sight. While the average American is only 39 years old, the average Japanese citizen is almost 50 years old, making Japan the world’s second-oldest country behind tiny Monaco by median age. Then there’s South Korea, a country where it seems no one wants any kids anymore. While the United States has a below-average yet healthy fertility rate of 1.84, South Korea’s fertility rate is a depressing 1.12, the second-lowest in the world. In a country with a well-known punishing work schedule and a loneliness epidemic far more dire than our own, it is no wonder that young Koreans have given up hope and have turned to the screen for comfort.

To exemplify how bad the situation has become, the Pacific Rim Duo suffer a grim phenomenon known in Japanese as Kodokushi or Korean as Godoksa, and in English as the lonely death. Every year, 4,000 South Koreans and a heartbreaking 58,000 Japanese pass away alone, without the presence of a friend or family member in their apartments. With no concerned relatives or social support systems to report their deaths, these lonely Korean and Japanese corpses sit in their apartments for weeks or months until the authorities find them only after neighbors notice an odd smell. In societies where family and generational hierarchy mean everything, such undignified endings are devastating. And there is seemingly no solution in sight. Government incentives? Unaffordable. Technology restrictions? Unpopular with the youth. And immigration? Just look at Europe. In other words, the United States has two more declining allies on top of Europe’s own tragic decline.

And then there are the political problems. It does not help the current situation that Korea lived under a brutal Japanese occupation for 40 years where, among other crimes, young Korean comfort women were forced into sex slavery by Japanese military officers. This dispute has clouded the relationship between Seoul and Tokyo for decades, culminating in a four-year diplomatic crisis only resolved in 2023 under heavy pressure from Washington. To be blunt, without the oversight of the United States, this historical trauma is so strong that it is unlikely South Korea and Japan would be allies at all today. However, the Pacific Rim Duo have made tremendous strides, albeit with US encouragement, to put aside this and other painful disputes and move forward toward a more healthy relationship.

And then there’s domestic politics. Before I dive into this topic, I’ll offer up an FYI that Japan today operates a parliamentary system with a prime minister while South Korea operates a US-like presidential system. I will start with Japan. Just last week, Japan recently elected Sanae Takaichi, a staunch conservative as the nation’s first-ever female prime minister. While a significant accomplishment in a historically male-dominated society, Takaichi’s appointment cannot hide that she is Japan’s fifth prime minister in just over five years. Shortly before his resignation, outgoing premier Shigeru Ishiba bemoaned that the job was “exhausting” and “not much fun.” Considering Japan’s ageing crisis and geopolitical squeeze between superpowers, no wonder Ishiba had enough.

And Japan’s politics are a molehill compared to South Korea.

Last December, South Korea suffered an attempted coup d’etat as then-president Yoon Suk-Yeol, embattled by corruption allegations against himself, his political allies, and even his wife declared martial law and attempted to shut down the National Assembly in Seoul with assistance from the military. Following massive resistance by lawmakers and the public, Yoon stepped back from the brink. However, Yoon’s career and reputation were destroyed as he was impeached and ultimately arrested. Even the former first lady was not spared. The last I heard from Yoon is how the disgraced former president resisted a court appearance while lying down in his prison cell wearing only his underwear. Even for a country where former presidents routinely land themselves behind bars, the underwear incident is a new low. No wonder the Big Man of Pyongyang doesn’t take the Seoul government seriously. Why should he?

And there we have the Pacific Rim Duo’s ultimate, even existential dilemma. After years of leaving all their chips in the hands of the United States, suddenly their overseas patron is demanding a return on our investment. For decades, when he was just a high-profile New York real estate developer, Donald Trump has complained about the imbalanced relationship between the United States and our overseas strategic partners, Japan and South Korea among them. In a 1987 letter to The New York Times, Trump attacked Japan’s economic policies, and demanded explicit repayment to the US Treasury as the price for our continuing military support.

In a 1988 appearance on the Oprah Winfrey Show, Trump complained that Japan was “dumping” cheap products in the United States while slamming the door on American automobiles and agriculture to the Japanese domestic market. From what I have read, since this all happened before I was born, it is absolutely accurate that Japan’s economic and trade policies of the 1980s were unacceptably aggressive, with the United States as the main target. Thus, the future president was right. Now, Japan, for reasons mentioned above, lacks the same scale of economic leverage they held in 1988. South Korea has also been a target of Trump’s ire, arguing that Seoul’s economic growth has been at the direct expense of the United States and demanding substantial repayment lest he withdraw US troops from the country. And without US troops, or unthinkable option of nuclear weapons of their own, both Tokyo and Seoul know they would stand little chance against China and superpower military.

Despite my personal frustration at this naïve perspective of these bilateral relationships, it’s clear that many Americans have latched on to Trump’s America First worldview and believe it’s time for the Pacific Rim Duo to pay up.

So on this latest state visit, what exactly did the administration achieve? It’s clear that Seoul and Tokyo, aware that their patron was led by a man who saw them as unfair beneficiaries of American aid, were eager to flatter him. In Tokyo, Trump was received by Emperor (yes, they still use that term) Naruhito at the Royal Palace where US officials were greeted by full military honors. The President also received from Takaichi the golf putter of the late Prime Minister and avid golfer Shinzo Abe, who was shockingly and tragically gunned down in 2022. Finally, Takaichi agreed to donate 250 Cherry Trees to the United States in honor of our nation’s 250^th birthday. Seoul’s gift was perhaps a little ironic, considering the left-wing No Kings movement in the United States— a golden crown worn by medieval Korean kings. Still, the flattery appears to have worked. Gone were the complaints about unfair burdens on the United States, and in their place were glowing compliments of these new Asian leaders.

And then of course there’s trade, the president’s central focus of the visit. There’s no way around the Pacific Rim Duo’s disappointment that Trump refused to lower his tariffs on their exports to the 2.5% levy on Japanese goods and 0% levy on South Korean goods they had enjoyed before this year. The best both countries received on this matter was a reduction from 27.5% to 15% on their automobile exports. For someone who has long claimed tariffs will rebalance historically unfair relationships, and without them the United States faces financial ruin, backing down on his central, four-decade-running political promise is unthinkable. Other concessions were implemented by the Pacific Rim Duo to reach final trade agreements. As a country with limited strategic leverage over a superpower such as the United States (upon whom Japan’s survival depends), Japan reluctantly agreed to a massive, $550 billion investment fund involving Japanese companies investing in various sectors of the US economy including energy, artificial intelligence, shipbuilding, and pharmaceuticals.

As for the final coup de grace, the United States will earn 90% of the profits after the initial return on investment. While President Trump and his supporters will celebrate what is clearly a massive win for the United States, not just MAGA supporters, the Japanese have little alternative other than to smile through gritted teeth. There’s no doubt that the strategic gains for the United States are massive here, even for those who participated in No Kings. The South Korea agreement has a similar outline. Yes, South Korea has to accept 15% tariffs and invest a $350 billion in the United States. However, to avoid another 1997-style currency crisis, both sides agreed the $350 billion investments would be staggered over 10 years compared with Japan’s tighter deadline. These agreements, invested in every strategically critical industry this country has, will hopefully be the start of reducing our long-running dependence on our main adversary, China.

In turn, as both Japan and South Korea fight desperately to avoid falling into the same systemic decline we see in Europe, the Pacific Rim Duo know they have little alternative but to invest their money where there is serious growth to be found: the United States of America. Now, we must all wait and see whether the situation turns around in the lands of Pokemon and K-Pop.