A Thaw in the Arctic

At last, America’s Greenland quarrel reaches a conclusion

If there is one thing you can write about me, it’s that I am not much of a gambler. There is a reason why I have only traveled to Las Vegas twice in my entire life and have no interest in ever returning: gambling is a waste of time and money better spent on more intellectually worthwhile pursuits— such as composing this very newsletter. However, if I were a gambling man, I would bet that no one reading this blog has ever ventured above the Arctic Circle. Home to 4 million of the hardiest people on Earth, the Arctic region encompasses the northern hemisphere’s surface area 66° 33′ and above. When we typically imagine life in the High North, our minds drift not toward high-level geopolitics, but instead polar bears, the Inuit, reindeer, and the breathtaking Northern Lights.

That was, until December 2024, when Donald Trump insisted “For purposes of National Security and Freedom throughout the World, the United States of America feels that the ownership and control of Greenland is an absolute necessity.”

What followed was 21 months of scolding from European leaders and the legacy media, saber-rattling from the White House that seemed to push the United States to the brink of war with NATO ally Denmark (who technically still owns but nevertheless gives wide autonomy to Greenland), and an abundance of sleepless nights in Washington and throughout Europe. However, lost in the kerfuffle was the role of Greenland itself, and why the island is critical for American national security. If one gazes at three-dimensional globe, it becomes clear that the shortest direct line between the United States and our major overseas adversaries with the nuclear capacity to obliterate us, China and Russia, crosses not the Pacific or the Atlantic, but the Arctic. Russian nuclear missiles, in particular, would pass directly over the frozen wasteland of Greenland.

Hence why, when I listened to a lecture at my Alma Mater of Furman University last Friday by Finnish President Alexander Stubb, the fellow Furman Alumnus warned that while Moscow’s nuclear force and strategic crown jewel may be located on the frozen Kola Peninsula close to the Finnish border, the missiles themselves are not pointed in the direction of Helsinki, but toward Washington. This geographic reality is the exact reason for the existence of Pituffik Space Base, America’s first line of defense. Without this critical radar station deep in the frozen tundra of the Arctic and completely inaccessible by land, Washington would have far less warning to react as Russian nuclear missiles fly directly toward our major cities.

Just as this lecture was occurring, President Trump himself announced via social media that the United States of America, the Kingdom of Denmark, and the autonomous Danish territory of Greenland had reached an agreement that “gives the United States permanent control over security, and all other needs, in Greenland, completely addressing ALL of our many U.S. concerns.” I must admit that upon reading this news, I was immensely relieved that not only would our national security posture be upheld, and even strengthened by the agreement, but also that the entire Trump-inflicted saga regarding the status of Greenland was now fully resolved. However, as some of you may know, a 1951 defense agreement between Washington and Copenhagen already grants the United States vast freedom of operation across the island of Greenland, making any future agreements almost (but not entirely) redundant.

The most critical aspect of the new trilateral agreement (the 1951 treaty was strictly bilateral) is that Trump dropped his demand for a complete absorption of Greenland as sovereign US territory, the posture that provoked the whole crisis in the first place. While such an aggressive approach is not how I would have handled the matter, we must be honest with ourselves and understand that expecting Donald Trump to relax his blustery and maximalist diplomatic negotiating posture is about as fruitful as waiting for Godot. Despite this immovable reality, the withdrawal of demanding an Alaska-like transferal of sovereignty in the mold of an Atlantic City real estate transaction is, according to geopolitical analyst Ian Bremmer, a sign that Trump’s international leverage has succumbed to a classic lame duck decline. However, the core American security interest, barring the Russians, and especially the Chinese, from any development on Greenland, has been thoroughly addressed.

Looking forward, despite the successful conclusion of the Greenland kerfuffle, further geopolitical competition in the Arctic remains inevitable. It is no secret that the Russians badly covet Svalbard, an archipelago recognized as sovereign territory of another Nordic state, Norway, but thanks to a 1920 treaty grants the Russian Federation (then the Soviet Union) vast peaceful and commercial interests. The reason why Moscow has long griped about the status quo on Svalbard is identical to our concerns over Greenland: in order to detect American nuclear missiles flying over the Arctic bound for the Kola Peninsula or even Moscow at the same speed Washington can with Pituffik Space Base, a full radar station and military base is vital. Yet because Norway is a NATO country and Russia is losing hundreds of thousands of men in Ukraine, Svalbard remains off limits to Moscow for the foreseeable future.

And last, but certainly not least, we must not forget the presence of another powerful adversary, the People’s Republic of China, and its opportunistic maneuvering to capitalize on a thawing Arctic Ocean and bypass Middle Eastern shipping chokepoints like the Red Sea altogether.

In conclusion, you may ask why I haven’t mentioned the topic of critical and rare earth minerals, which Greenland has an abundance of. While Greenlandic society is undoubtedly sensitive to foreign resource extraction, it can’t hurt to remind everyone, including the U.S. government, that most of Greenland’s mineral wealth lies buried beneath two miles of ice in a climate incompatible with human life. If such mining does occur, we must be patient. To leave you with parting thoughts, the agreement between the United States, Denmark, and Greenland resolves a high-profile quarrel between NATO allies and ensures the island itself will remain under the protection of the United States military indefinitely, strengthening the preexisting 1951 agreement. And the Arctic region will no longer be the exclusive domain of the polar bear, but a quiet battleground of geopolitical goliaths.